Problem #1

Vaught's Conjecture

Open!!!Very high impact — resolution would be of award-level significance

For any theory TT, let I(T,κ)I(T, \kappa) denote the number of models of TT of cardinality κ\kappa up to isomorphism. Vaught's Conjecture states that if TT is a first-order theory in a countable language then either I(T,0)0I(T, \aleph_0) \leq \aleph_0 or I(T,0)=20I(T, \aleph_0) = 2^{\aleph_0}. Note that this statement follows immediately from CH\mathsf{CH}; the question is whether it is provable in ZFC\mathsf{ZFC}.

Known Partial Results

  • Morley proved that for a first-order theory TT in a countable language, either I(T,0)0I(T, \aleph_0) \leq \aleph_0, I(T,0)=1I(T, \aleph_0) = \aleph_1, or I(T,0)=20I(T, \aleph_0) = 2^{\aleph_0}. In other words, any counterexample to Vaught's Conjecture must have exactly 1\aleph_1 countable models up to isomorphism.
  • The conjecture is known to hold for a number of special classes of theories, including:
    • ω\omega-stable theories (Harrington, Makkai and Shelah).
    • o-minimal theories (Mayer).
    • Superstable theories of finite U-rank (Buechler).
    • Theories of trees—i.e. theories in a language with one binary relation symbol << which extend the theory stating that << is a partial order and that the set of predecessors of each element is linearly ordered (Steel).

Notes

Vaught's Conjecture is among the oldest and most famous open problems in mathematical logic and has close connections to model theory, descriptive set theory and computability theory. It was first posed by Vaught in 1961 [Vau61].

There are many well-known strengthenings of Vaught's Conjecture, including the topological Vaught's Conjecture, Martin's Conjecture (the model theoretic version), and the ω\omega-Vaught's Conjecture.

Reference for the problem statement

[PT25]Anand Pillay and Predrag Tanović, The number of countable models of first-order theories, arXiv preprint, 2025 [link]

Additional References

[Vau61]Vaught, R. L., Denumerable models of complete theories, Infinitistic Methods, 1961

[Ste78]Steel, J., On Vaught's conjecture, Cabal Seminar 76–77, Lecture Notes in Mathematics, 1978

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